My 2010 position in Silver Wheaton brought gains of 100%, give or take a few dollars. I also had a small position in Premium Exploration which i thought had great potential as a gold exploration company. Their properties seemed to be extremely valuable but I sold my position at the end of the year for just a slight gain, which turned out to be a bit soon. Over the following weeks the stock did a major run up in price which would have been nice, but now it sits just about where i sold. The reason i sold my positions at the end of the year was so that i could switch from paper precious metals investments to physical metals investments. My research throughout the year taught me alot about the nature of our crisis as compared to other crisis's suffered by the US and other nations throughout history. I learned about the transfer in wealth from cash to tangible assets like gold and silver. So at the beginning of the 2011 year i purchased a 100oz bar of
.999 fine silver for $30 an ounce and paid $100 for shipping and insurance. In 2010 I started with $1600 which i doubled to just about $3200 by december. I then purchased the bar for $3100 and later two small 1oz bars for just under $100 with shipping.
Less than 3 months after my purchase silver was riding $50oz. Thats a gain of 62%.
During these summer months the price of silver has been beatin back by a combination of massive commercial shorts, in an effort to supress the price, and the natural summertime selloff which happens nearly on cue every year. Notoriously the fall and spring months are best for precious metals while the summer is usually the slowest.
I do expect that by years end we'll be back up near the $50 price range.
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Late June, 2011
God its been a long time since i've been here. Its quite interesting to read over my postings from almost 2 years ago. I find it invigorating and motivating to see how passionate i was about investing and expanding my knowledge. I'm happy to report that some of my thoughts were on the money, and that my early research was in the right direction. Though i can say i was wrong about some things. So here i am nearly 2 years later in front of my computer sharing my thoughts about investing.
What i've learned since my last post is this... investing is alot like the game of poker. Why do you think so many of the same people reach the finals table every year? because their the luckiest people on earth? No, its because its a game of skill.
There are thousands of people out there on tv or in magazines that give their opinion everyday. Most of them couldnt be more wrong. Its like a doctor telling a cancer patient that they must start chemo and radiation as soon as possible, without understanding that chemo and radiation are actually proven not to work. Almost every doctor in the country responds to cancer with that same advice, because thats what they grew up knowing and thats what they learned in school, and thats what rakes in billions of dollars every year. Its those people out there getting ridiculed on tv for saying something against the grain. For the most part, those are the people who have an actualy understanding.
Something I learned when i was young is that most people dont really know whats going on.
" the reason the rich get richer, the poor get poorer and the middle class just struggles with debt is because financial education takes place at home, not in school." Robert Kiyosaki
How true! and i wonder why the very essence of financial success has never entered the public classroom? What is it that seperates the rich and the poor and middle class? its the understanding of investing! I told this to some friends of mine over a drink at the local bar and they seemed extremely interested in what i was saying (i mean who doesnt want to have money). About 2 weeks later one of them approached me, very excitedly, and said that he had taken me seriously and he had begun investing. He said "ya i've started a roth IRA, and im going to start putting in a $100 a month and hopefully double my contributions every year". I should have told him it was a horrible idea; maybe i will when i see him next. That is not investing. The point of investing is that at the end of the year you've generated income with minimal personal involvement.
"when your yearly income derived from investments is enough to cover your yearly living expenses with some left over for growth, you are wealthy."
Anyway, the point of the story is that saving us currency at this point is like saving an ice cube for later. The rate of inflation of the currency supply is only escalating. It took 200 years for the US to create $825 Billion in paper money;known as the currency supply. Since 2009 the currency supply has increased to over $3 trillion.
Thats and expansion of nearly 4 times. Below i've posted a video which shows the calculations of some austrian economists who have actually figured out mathematically the "point of no return" in the case of a failing economy.
As you'll see, we're well past "the point of no return". There are really only 2 options for us now and neither have the best interests of the "savers" in mind.
However, for those that are prepared and educated, this will be an extremely profitable time.
The Point of No Return: Part 1
The Point of No Return: Part 2
What i've learned since my last post is this... investing is alot like the game of poker. Why do you think so many of the same people reach the finals table every year? because their the luckiest people on earth? No, its because its a game of skill.
There are thousands of people out there on tv or in magazines that give their opinion everyday. Most of them couldnt be more wrong. Its like a doctor telling a cancer patient that they must start chemo and radiation as soon as possible, without understanding that chemo and radiation are actually proven not to work. Almost every doctor in the country responds to cancer with that same advice, because thats what they grew up knowing and thats what they learned in school, and thats what rakes in billions of dollars every year. Its those people out there getting ridiculed on tv for saying something against the grain. For the most part, those are the people who have an actualy understanding.
Something I learned when i was young is that most people dont really know whats going on.
" the reason the rich get richer, the poor get poorer and the middle class just struggles with debt is because financial education takes place at home, not in school." Robert Kiyosaki
How true! and i wonder why the very essence of financial success has never entered the public classroom? What is it that seperates the rich and the poor and middle class? its the understanding of investing! I told this to some friends of mine over a drink at the local bar and they seemed extremely interested in what i was saying (i mean who doesnt want to have money). About 2 weeks later one of them approached me, very excitedly, and said that he had taken me seriously and he had begun investing. He said "ya i've started a roth IRA, and im going to start putting in a $100 a month and hopefully double my contributions every year". I should have told him it was a horrible idea; maybe i will when i see him next. That is not investing. The point of investing is that at the end of the year you've generated income with minimal personal involvement.
"when your yearly income derived from investments is enough to cover your yearly living expenses with some left over for growth, you are wealthy."
Anyway, the point of the story is that saving us currency at this point is like saving an ice cube for later. The rate of inflation of the currency supply is only escalating. It took 200 years for the US to create $825 Billion in paper money;known as the currency supply. Since 2009 the currency supply has increased to over $3 trillion.
Thats and expansion of nearly 4 times. Below i've posted a video which shows the calculations of some austrian economists who have actually figured out mathematically the "point of no return" in the case of a failing economy.
As you'll see, we're well past "the point of no return". There are really only 2 options for us now and neither have the best interests of the "savers" in mind.
However, for those that are prepared and educated, this will be an extremely profitable time.
The Point of No Return: Part 1
The Point of No Return: Part 2
Monday, November 30, 2009
I have a feeling that there will be another down trend in the equity markets shortly.
you'd think a down trend in equities would drag down commodities to, as it did in the crash of 2008. But, i think that because of the severity of the worldwide debt, and massive liquidity ("stimulus", money printing), many commodities that would have usually tumbled will tend to have minimal downward movement, remain unscathed, or actually make gains. When the markets start a downtrend, investors are leaving equities and looking for a safer investment, typically the US Dollar, but because of its instability I think that investors will search for something else, a physical asset to preserve their wealth.
you'd think a down trend in equities would drag down commodities to, as it did in the crash of 2008. But, i think that because of the severity of the worldwide debt, and massive liquidity ("stimulus", money printing), many commodities that would have usually tumbled will tend to have minimal downward movement, remain unscathed, or actually make gains. When the markets start a downtrend, investors are leaving equities and looking for a safer investment, typically the US Dollar, but because of its instability I think that investors will search for something else, a physical asset to preserve their wealth.
Monday, November 23, 2009
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
"Damn it feels good....."
About two months ago I had a conversation with my father. We discussed economics, particularly the condition of the US economy and its relation to the global economy. I argued that because of the "recession", most nations are commited to creating serious liquidity to try and jumpstart their local economies. This will lead to serious inflationary issues and likewise the rise in demand for commodity based currency, especially precious metals. The US is no exception. Right now the condition of the US economy is so unstable and so lop-sided that we are commited to either printing money or borrowing it to support our way of life. We import more than we export, we spend more than we make, even the nations that used to lend money to us are thinking twice now.
The US Dollar is the world's reserve currency, which means that it is the largest and most depended on currency the world has to offer; almost. Gold, the mother of precious metals, is the only currency that is more stable and more dependable than the US Dollar. The two currencies are inversely related, meaning that if the value of one diminishes the value of the other increases. That being said, the value of the US Dollar is in the most dire straits it has ever known, which is why I believe that the value of gold will continue to increase greatly.
On those grounds I told my father that I believed that the precious metals were the most secure investments for the coming years. The price of silver tends to rise about twice that of gold, and the price of a silver mining stock tends to rise about twice that of silver itself. So by purchasing stocks in a silver mining company I increase my earnings by nearly 4 times.
It felt good when my parents came clean and admitted that my predictions were right.
The price of gold now sits at $1140.00, more than a 14% increase since our initial discussion.
The US Dollar is the world's reserve currency, which means that it is the largest and most depended on currency the world has to offer; almost. Gold, the mother of precious metals, is the only currency that is more stable and more dependable than the US Dollar. The two currencies are inversely related, meaning that if the value of one diminishes the value of the other increases. That being said, the value of the US Dollar is in the most dire straits it has ever known, which is why I believe that the value of gold will continue to increase greatly.
On those grounds I told my father that I believed that the precious metals were the most secure investments for the coming years. The price of silver tends to rise about twice that of gold, and the price of a silver mining stock tends to rise about twice that of silver itself. So by purchasing stocks in a silver mining company I increase my earnings by nearly 4 times.
It felt good when my parents came clean and admitted that my predictions were right.
The price of gold now sits at $1140.00, more than a 14% increase since our initial discussion.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Serial Killer Mentality
today I learned that there is no room for emotion in investing.
If you make a move, it better be for a strategic reason, and the minute that
reasoning no longer adds up dump the position. Cutting a loss is potentially the hardest thing for the majority of investors to do. But after watching other successful traders strategies I realized that the only way to make it is to be cold about your trades. Treat it like an enemy, watch it, understand its movements and then strike when a weakness is revealed.
If you make a move, it better be for a strategic reason, and the minute that
reasoning no longer adds up dump the position. Cutting a loss is potentially the hardest thing for the majority of investors to do. But after watching other successful traders strategies I realized that the only way to make it is to be cold about your trades. Treat it like an enemy, watch it, understand its movements and then strike when a weakness is revealed.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
An End, A Beginning, and a Fresh Outlook....
It appears that Friday was the last day of work for me at unique landscapes. I guess im glad in some way because it forces me to look for a consistent, year round job. I've known for a long time now that landscaping was not a career move, but I do like doing small jobs on the side. So, not that its a career choice, but now I'm looking for a more reasonable job, possibly less physically demanding. Hopefully something good comes along but I dont have very long to get situated here, I definately cant take a big lag in pay.
So aside from the here and now of my employment I think I've finally made the realization that I would like to get more involved with investing. I'm going to start out as a personal investor(which is where i stand), and then work towards creating an investment consultation/capital management firm. I believe I'd be good at it because I have a passion for investments. I love to learn about all kinds of investing; real estate, stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc, But the thing I've realized about investing in the markets is that your capital stays liquid. It can be relocated within mere hours from one extreme to another, you can take advantage of a run in oil prices today and a fall the next. There is always a balance, its like physics where energy is never lost, its just transferred. Whenever something is down, something else is up. If you invest in realestate you are commited until you sell the property, in the early 2000's that was great but now its horrible. In a situation like this, you must know far in advance what moves you need to make to put them in motion.
So for this reason I know that investing is for me. I also think that Id like to try and create some program for younger people to invest. They need to learn that being a carpenter is great but you need to understand money and how it works in order to be really successful. I've never met a young person who doesnt want to succeed, it just seems that the normative education and life experiences teach them the opposite of what it takes to make it, and it eliminates alot of peoples potential. so I think its the most important thing to educate young people about investing, especially now.
I am also going to start some sort of publicly owned holdings firm. I believe that its a fairly quick way to amass large amounts of capital for investments. Ultimately this is what will open up the possibilities for serious investments.
I need to study, global economics more, and it seems that its much better to learn from other successful investors rather than TV.
I also need to study the law surrounding these endeavours, as well as the proper certifications and licenses that are required, and the basic layout of the business structure(how does it work?).
Anyway, for now I still say hold the short positions on the EQUITIES and FINANCIAL MARKETS. Once they drop wait for a good entrance point in a out of the country silver or gold company that is unhedged.
So aside from the here and now of my employment I think I've finally made the realization that I would like to get more involved with investing. I'm going to start out as a personal investor(which is where i stand), and then work towards creating an investment consultation/capital management firm. I believe I'd be good at it because I have a passion for investments. I love to learn about all kinds of investing; real estate, stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc, But the thing I've realized about investing in the markets is that your capital stays liquid. It can be relocated within mere hours from one extreme to another, you can take advantage of a run in oil prices today and a fall the next. There is always a balance, its like physics where energy is never lost, its just transferred. Whenever something is down, something else is up. If you invest in realestate you are commited until you sell the property, in the early 2000's that was great but now its horrible. In a situation like this, you must know far in advance what moves you need to make to put them in motion.
So for this reason I know that investing is for me. I also think that Id like to try and create some program for younger people to invest. They need to learn that being a carpenter is great but you need to understand money and how it works in order to be really successful. I've never met a young person who doesnt want to succeed, it just seems that the normative education and life experiences teach them the opposite of what it takes to make it, and it eliminates alot of peoples potential. so I think its the most important thing to educate young people about investing, especially now.
I am also going to start some sort of publicly owned holdings firm. I believe that its a fairly quick way to amass large amounts of capital for investments. Ultimately this is what will open up the possibilities for serious investments.
I need to study, global economics more, and it seems that its much better to learn from other successful investors rather than TV.
I also need to study the law surrounding these endeavours, as well as the proper certifications and licenses that are required, and the basic layout of the business structure(how does it work?).
Anyway, for now I still say hold the short positions on the EQUITIES and FINANCIAL MARKETS. Once they drop wait for a good entrance point in a out of the country silver or gold company that is unhedged.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Eureka!! I was right on my gold trend assumptions
About a month ago now I began pointing out two trends in the gold chart that I believed had a good amount of validity. It just so happens that my assumptions were correct as today gold has broken above the upper convergence trend line to approx. $980. I think that if we break $980 our next major resistance is the $1000 level.
Since september is notoriously the strongest month for the precious metals I think what we're likely to see here is gold prices between the $990 and $1000 range. I have a feeling that they will ultimately fall back a bit in november because its traditionally a weaker month for the metal. So for now my thoughts are this....
Hold you short positions in the equities, especially financials for the next few weeks.
If china's Shanghai index is any foreshadow we have a few weeks of downside movement ahead of us. At that point I think I will sit tight until gold prices fall down a bit in november and then I will hop into a silver position for the coming of the new year. If you look at historical charts you'll notice that precious metals tend to do well with the start of the new year, especially around late january/february.
Since september is notoriously the strongest month for the precious metals I think what we're likely to see here is gold prices between the $990 and $1000 range. I have a feeling that they will ultimately fall back a bit in november because its traditionally a weaker month for the metal. So for now my thoughts are this....
Hold you short positions in the equities, especially financials for the next few weeks.
If china's Shanghai index is any foreshadow we have a few weeks of downside movement ahead of us. At that point I think I will sit tight until gold prices fall down a bit in november and then I will hop into a silver position for the coming of the new year. If you look at historical charts you'll notice that precious metals tend to do well with the start of the new year, especially around late january/february.
Monday, August 31, 2009
September Grass is the sweetest kind.....
Its even better when your portfolio is growing!
I made my move into a short position on the DJIA today as it is the last day of August and it seems the trend has already begun. Im using the proshares short ETF to gain my position. I have a feeling that the financials are going to get hit the hardest this fall because their fundamentals are by far the worst out there but I've choosen to go the safe root. The way things have been going so far it just seems like the government almost wont let anything bad happen to the banks. I know that they are in a horrible position and they are most likely going to get slammed but I just dont want to take the risk. I guess I'm still to new at this whole thing and I have trouble trusting my gut feelings yet. But I do believe the financial shorts will most likely be prove more profitable.
I always enjoy september, almost as if I may never see it again.
Oh how I hate to say goodbye to the summer months, but
I made my move into a short position on the DJIA today as it is the last day of August and it seems the trend has already begun. Im using the proshares short ETF to gain my position. I have a feeling that the financials are going to get hit the hardest this fall because their fundamentals are by far the worst out there but I've choosen to go the safe root. The way things have been going so far it just seems like the government almost wont let anything bad happen to the banks. I know that they are in a horrible position and they are most likely going to get slammed but I just dont want to take the risk. I guess I'm still to new at this whole thing and I have trouble trusting my gut feelings yet. But I do believe the financial shorts will most likely be prove more profitable.
I always enjoy september, almost as if I may never see it again.
Oh how I hate to say goodbye to the summer months, but
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Sitting on the Sidelines
Right now I find myself extremely eager. I have a strong desire to trade but the markets just seem like their in a very weird position. There are very convincing arguments coming from two opposing views; the first swearing the rally will continue because of liquidity in stimulus and signs of "green shoots", the other stating the markets are overbought and a correction is due very soon. I've always found it easier to clear my head when I remove myself from the situation and do something else, maybe even take a weekend getaway to the beach. So this past weekend I took a trip to the Vineyard to enjoy the beaches and island quality of life. With a clear head I reviewed all the information I've gathered and came to the conclusion that the current markets are no place for my money. I believe that in the short term there will be a correction in the markets.
I am waiting for the right time to enter a short position. I think I will most likely short the financial sector because they have the worst underlying fundamentals. Right now alot of the wallstreet gurus are on leave, but since september and october are traditionally the worst months I believe their return will spur a stiff correction for the financials.
I do believe though that companies directly effected by the stimulus will do excellent in the longer term. The government has a few major changes that they will push no matter what, and the money will flow towards their ideals. The first one is healthcare, Obama has vowed to digitize all health records by 2012, thats as close to a guarantee as you'll ever get.
The second change will have to do with natural gas. The US has an abundance of natural gas and yet we continue to use foreign oil. We could save trillions if you were to use our own resources wisely, which Obama will most likely push.
Third is the fact that the US has always been known as the information and technology giant, and in order to maintain that crucial status we've got to push technology.. and hard! We can't let ourself slip behind in this field, so anything linked to new wave technology will most likely see serious gains in the future as the entire world evolves.
Fourth is the need for Cleantech. Alternative energy, water purification, recycling, etc. All of these fields and more will grow intensly as the world moves into a cleantech era.
Fifth is the oil shortage, its a guaranteed gainer. There is only so much and the price will only grow as the supply diminishes, especially with BRIC economies growing dependence.
Sixth is the Smart grid. Our nation electrical grid is still based in the early 1900's. We need a major overhaul in the way we produce and manage our electricity. And this new smartgrid push is no joke. It has to happen if we as a country are going to grow and evolve.
So those are my potential investment ideas for the longer term, but like I said Im going to sit tight until things make more sense.
I am waiting for the right time to enter a short position. I think I will most likely short the financial sector because they have the worst underlying fundamentals. Right now alot of the wallstreet gurus are on leave, but since september and october are traditionally the worst months I believe their return will spur a stiff correction for the financials.
I do believe though that companies directly effected by the stimulus will do excellent in the longer term. The government has a few major changes that they will push no matter what, and the money will flow towards their ideals. The first one is healthcare, Obama has vowed to digitize all health records by 2012, thats as close to a guarantee as you'll ever get.
The second change will have to do with natural gas. The US has an abundance of natural gas and yet we continue to use foreign oil. We could save trillions if you were to use our own resources wisely, which Obama will most likely push.
Third is the fact that the US has always been known as the information and technology giant, and in order to maintain that crucial status we've got to push technology.. and hard! We can't let ourself slip behind in this field, so anything linked to new wave technology will most likely see serious gains in the future as the entire world evolves.
Fourth is the need for Cleantech. Alternative energy, water purification, recycling, etc. All of these fields and more will grow intensly as the world moves into a cleantech era.
Fifth is the oil shortage, its a guaranteed gainer. There is only so much and the price will only grow as the supply diminishes, especially with BRIC economies growing dependence.
Sixth is the Smart grid. Our nation electrical grid is still based in the early 1900's. We need a major overhaul in the way we produce and manage our electricity. And this new smartgrid push is no joke. It has to happen if we as a country are going to grow and evolve.
So those are my potential investment ideas for the longer term, but like I said Im going to sit tight until things make more sense.
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