Friday, November 2, 2012

Shed a little light on Gold: The Remonetization


This video does a great job at explaining the basic structure of the worlds major banks.

The real topic of discussion in this post will be Tier 1 Capital. First and foremost, what is Tier 1 Capital and what is its purpose?

The 1st Tier of capital in the major banking industry (banks typically valued at $50Billion or more) is esentially the beating heart of the bank itself. It is composed of assets that are regarded as having a zero percent risk weight. Meaning that they are of no liability, and can be counted on no matter what the economic landscape. The purpose of these capital reserves are to protect the bank from possible collapse during times of great distress, like the large financial collapse of 2007 and 2008 where we saw many large institutions come under serious pressure do to over leveraging and inadequate capital reserves.

Now that we have defined Tier 1 capital and we understand its purpose lets ask ourselves... what should qualify as a zero risk asset?

Typically the banks own shares of common stock and retained earnings are the heavy hitters. They account for a good portion of the reserve capital. Also allowed into this select category are government guaranteed debt instruments like treasury bonds, and possibly common shares of other institutions. When you think about the term "zero risk" some of these assets simply dont seem to fit the bill, especially under current keynesian monetary policies. With governments around the world expanding their currency supplies at alarming rates it seems negligent to assume that bonds, with such small yields, would be viewed as a "safe haven" asset class as their returns are mostly below the rate of inflation. Anyone that can perform basic mathematics can see that most of these governments have very little to no chance of repaying their debts without first inflating their currency supply to make their payments bearable. So the options for these treasury holders are limited, esentially, to either being repayed with devalued currency (at a loss), or not being repayed at all; hardly what i would call a "zero risk" asset.
On the other hand you have an asset like Gold which has proven over nearly 5000 years of history that it is the ultimate in stability. It has no counterparty risk, it cannot be manipulated or reproduced and most importantly it tends to outperform all other asset classes in times of great inflation, deflation, and distress because of its "zero risk", "safe haven" properties. Gold seems to fit all of the requirements for tier 1 capital and yet it is viewed, in the banking industry, as unequal to currencies and government debt. In fact, within Basel II standards, it remains in the 3rd tier of capital which is home to the most risky assets.

So why isnt gold used, in the world wide banking system, as tier 1 capital if it is exactly what they need in times like these?

This is a great question and the answer is fairly obvious once revealed.
There has actually been talk within the banking industry about the possible shift of gold to a tier 1 asset. You see, banks would actually benefit from the change, as the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) is forcing them to increase their percentage of tier 1 capital starting January 1, 2013 to create more stability in wake of the 2008 crisis. Having other options would allow them to more easily fill the added requirements.
The reason that its so difficult for the committee to allow gold into the tier 1 class is that it would seriously undermine the governments ability to sell their debts. As mentioned earlier, anyone with a calculator can figure out that the bonds have negative returns while gold is only increasing in value with every dollar, euro, yen, etc printed. The banks would without doubt begin to diversify more of their holdings out of bonds and currencies and into gold, so the governments really won't take a change like that sitting down. It may be forced upon them though as gold continues to incrimentally enter the system from the peripherals.
Central Banks have become net gold buyers for the first time in years, and that really makes a bold statement. In the eastern hemisphere we're even seeing the chinese government encouraging its citizens to purchase metals. Many nations are beginning to diversify more and more of their holdings out of dollars and into commodities, as well as creating trade agreements which do not involve converting currency into dollars for purchases. We've seen the acceptance of gold to settle debts on many occasions and its becoming more obvious that people dont want to continue holding and accepting currencies that are being continually debased. So we can see that people are starting to understand the situation more fully as the problems only seem to compound and the fundamentals for precious metals continue to improve. Gold will ultimately move back towards the center of the financial system where it belongs, whether its voluntary or forced doesnt seem to matter.