I have a feeling that there will be another down trend in the equity markets shortly.
you'd think a down trend in equities would drag down commodities to, as it did in the crash of 2008. But, i think that because of the severity of the worldwide debt, and massive liquidity ("stimulus", money printing), many commodities that would have usually tumbled will tend to have minimal downward movement, remain unscathed, or actually make gains. When the markets start a downtrend, investors are leaving equities and looking for a safer investment, typically the US Dollar, but because of its instability I think that investors will search for something else, a physical asset to preserve their wealth.

Today is November 23, 2009. I believe that WWPW will have a price jump starting tomorrow. The volume over the past couple days has been increasing, and today it closed above its nearest resistance level. As long as the level holds early on I think there will be a nice increase.

"Damn it feels good....."

About two months ago I had a conversation with my father. We discussed economics, particularly the condition of the US economy and its relation to the global economy. I argued that because of the "recession", most nations are commited to creating serious liquidity to try and jumpstart their local economies. This will lead to serious inflationary issues and likewise the rise in demand for commodity based currency, especially precious metals. The US is no exception. Right now the condition of the US economy is so unstable and so lop-sided that we are commited to either printing money or borrowing it to support our way of life. We import more than we export, we spend more than we make, even the nations that used to lend money to us are thinking twice now.
The US Dollar is the world's reserve currency, which means that it is the largest and most depended on currency the world has to offer; almost. Gold, the mother of precious metals, is the only currency that is more stable and more dependable than the US Dollar. The two currencies are inversely related, meaning that if the value of one diminishes the value of the other increases. That being said, the value of the US Dollar is in the most dire straits it has ever known, which is why I believe that the value of gold will continue to increase greatly.
On those grounds I told my father that I believed that the precious metals were the most secure investments for the coming years. The price of silver tends to rise about twice that of gold, and the price of a silver mining stock tends to rise about twice that of silver itself. So by purchasing stocks in a silver mining company I increase my earnings by nearly 4 times.
It felt good when my parents came clean and admitted that my predictions were right.
The price of gold now sits at $1140.00, more than a 14% increase since our initial discussion.

Serial Killer Mentality

today I learned that there is no room for emotion in investing.
If you make a move, it better be for a strategic reason, and the minute that
reasoning no longer adds up dump the position. Cutting a loss is potentially the hardest thing for the majority of investors to do. But after watching other successful traders strategies I realized that the only way to make it is to be cold about your trades. Treat it like an enemy, watch it, understand its movements and then strike when a weakness is revealed.

An End, A Beginning, and a Fresh Outlook....

It appears that Friday was the last day of work for me at unique landscapes. I guess im glad in some way because it forces me to look for a consistent, year round job. I've known for a long time now that landscaping was not a career move, but I do like doing small jobs on the side. So, not that its a career choice, but now I'm looking for a more reasonable job, possibly less physically demanding. Hopefully something good comes along but I dont have very long to get situated here, I definately cant take a big lag in pay.
So aside from the here and now of my employment I think I've finally made the realization that I would like to get more involved with investing. I'm going to start out as a personal investor(which is where i stand), and then work towards creating an investment consultation/capital management firm. I believe I'd be good at it because I have a passion for investments. I love to learn about all kinds of investing; real estate, stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc, But the thing I've realized about investing in the markets is that your capital stays liquid. It can be relocated within mere hours from one extreme to another, you can take advantage of a run in oil prices today and a fall the next. There is always a balance, its like physics where energy is never lost, its just transferred. Whenever something is down, something else is up. If you invest in realestate you are commited until you sell the property, in the early 2000's that was great but now its horrible. In a situation like this, you must know far in advance what moves you need to make to put them in motion.

So for this reason I know that investing is for me. I also think that Id like to try and create some program for younger people to invest. They need to learn that being a carpenter is great but you need to understand money and how it works in order to be really successful. I've never met a young person who doesnt want to succeed, it just seems that the normative education and life experiences teach them the opposite of what it takes to make it, and it eliminates alot of peoples potential. so I think its the most important thing to educate young people about investing, especially now.

I am also going to start some sort of publicly owned holdings firm. I believe that its a fairly quick way to amass large amounts of capital for investments. Ultimately this is what will open up the possibilities for serious investments.

I need to study, global economics more, and it seems that its much better to learn from other successful investors rather than TV.
I also need to study the law surrounding these endeavours, as well as the proper certifications and licenses that are required, and the basic layout of the business structure(how does it work?).

Anyway, for now I still say hold the short positions on the EQUITIES and FINANCIAL MARKETS. Once they drop wait for a good entrance point in a out of the country silver or gold company that is unhedged.

Eureka!! I was right on my gold trend assumptions

About a month ago now I began pointing out two trends in the gold chart that I believed had a good amount of validity. It just so happens that my assumptions were correct as today gold has broken above the upper convergence trend line to approx. $980. I think that if we break $980 our next major resistance is the $1000 level.

Since september is notoriously the strongest month for the precious metals I think what we're likely to see here is gold prices between the $990 and $1000 range. I have a feeling that they will ultimately fall back a bit in november because its traditionally a weaker month for the metal. So for now my thoughts are this....

Hold you short positions in the equities, especially financials for the next few weeks.
If china's Shanghai index is any foreshadow we have a few weeks of downside movement ahead of us. At that point I think I will sit tight until gold prices fall down a bit in november and then I will hop into a silver position for the coming of the new year. If you look at historical charts you'll notice that precious metals tend to do well with the start of the new year, especially around late january/february.

September Grass is the sweetest kind.....

Its even better when your portfolio is growing!

I made my move into a short position on the DJIA today as it is the last day of August and it seems the trend has already begun. Im using the proshares short ETF to gain my position. I have a feeling that the financials are going to get hit the hardest this fall because their fundamentals are by far the worst out there but I've choosen to go the safe root. The way things have been going so far it just seems like the government almost wont let anything bad happen to the banks. I know that they are in a horrible position and they are most likely going to get slammed but I just dont want to take the risk. I guess I'm still to new at this whole thing and I have trouble trusting my gut feelings yet. But I do believe the financial shorts will most likely be prove more profitable.

I always enjoy september, almost as if I may never see it again.
Oh how I hate to say goodbye to the summer months, but

Sitting on the Sidelines

Right now I find myself extremely eager. I have a strong desire to trade but the markets just seem like their in a very weird position. There are very convincing arguments coming from two opposing views; the first swearing the rally will continue because of liquidity in stimulus and signs of "green shoots", the other stating the markets are overbought and a correction is due very soon. I've always found it easier to clear my head when I remove myself from the situation and do something else, maybe even take a weekend getaway to the beach. So this past weekend I took a trip to the Vineyard to enjoy the beaches and island quality of life. With a clear head I reviewed all the information I've gathered and came to the conclusion that the current markets are no place for my money. I believe that in the short term there will be a correction in the markets.
I am waiting for the right time to enter a short position. I think I will most likely short the financial sector because they have the worst underlying fundamentals. Right now alot of the wallstreet gurus are on leave, but since september and october are traditionally the worst months I believe their return will spur a stiff correction for the financials.

I do believe though that companies directly effected by the stimulus will do excellent in the longer term. The government has a few major changes that they will push no matter what, and the money will flow towards their ideals. The first one is healthcare, Obama has vowed to digitize all health records by 2012, thats as close to a guarantee as you'll ever get.
The second change will have to do with natural gas. The US has an abundance of natural gas and yet we continue to use foreign oil. We could save trillions if you were to use our own resources wisely, which Obama will most likely push.
Third is the fact that the US has always been known as the information and technology giant, and in order to maintain that crucial status we've got to push technology.. and hard! We can't let ourself slip behind in this field, so anything linked to new wave technology will most likely see serious gains in the future as the entire world evolves.
Fourth is the need for Cleantech. Alternative energy, water purification, recycling, etc. All of these fields and more will grow intensly as the world moves into a cleantech era.
Fifth is the oil shortage, its a guaranteed gainer. There is only so much and the price will only grow as the supply diminishes, especially with BRIC economies growing dependence.
Sixth is the Smart grid. Our nation electrical grid is still based in the early 1900's. We need a major overhaul in the way we produce and manage our electricity. And this new smartgrid push is no joke. It has to happen if we as a country are going to grow and evolve.

So those are my potential investment ideas for the longer term, but like I said Im going to sit tight until things make more sense.

The Steam has run out.......

All data points to a market correction!

If you check the chart data for equites, gold, and the USD they all seem to fall right into line for a market correction. I'll show you what I mean....

On the DJIA chart below notice the areas that I've circled. Up top you'll see the relative strength Index(RSI) which has just begun its decent from a huge peak; a good sign that some weakness is to come. Also notice that the MACD lines at the bottom of the chart have just turned down from a serious peak as well, and they have crossed paths, usually a sign of a downturn in the chart. The Dow has been losing some momentum in the past few days and this is the first time in five weeks that it closes down at weeks end. All of this paired with some not so good retail sales and some scattered negative sentiments should point to a market correction.


Typically when the markets turn down, the Dollar becomes a safe haven and gains ground. So again if you look at the circled areas you'll notice the corresponding evidence in the RSI and the MACD. Looks like the dollar could have a rally; how big I dont know.


All of the inverse evidence can be seen in the gold chart below, as it moves opposite the dollar. The RSI still shows above average strength however the chart is for the 13th of august and doesnt include todays negative closing. I believe that the government is going to pull the country from this recession by any means necessary(increased gov. spending). Likewise inflation is bound to follow once the trend begins, so I think gold is a great asset to any portfolio however any purchases should be postponed until the price comes down a bit with this correction. Again I dont know how extensive the correction will be given that there is still a major mortgage crisis unfolding, and we all know how bad news can effect the markets.


I positioned myself in Proshares Short Dow 30 (DOG) to try and gain from the downturn. There is an ultrashort position named DXD and also there are financial short positions which are SEF and SKF. This fall we're going to see the first major spike in option Arm resets, so a real estate short could be in order as well. All though it must be timed very well, for minimal exposure.

Another Potential Gold Chart Trend