Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Natural Gas Outlook: begin taking profits

I shifted my position on Natural Gas Fund UNG today to begin taking profits. I really hate to change my stance before the winter months because normally thats when price increases would take place. If you bought around the low 12's when I originally posted my buy short order you would be up about 10% now, which isn't a bad gain by any means for under 30 days. The reason I had only suggested to buy for short amount of time is the same reason I'm postponing my buys on all other commodities right now; I believe the "bull market" will come to an end this fall. I've named some of the reasons for a turn around in earlier posts but to reiterate; second wave of real estate/ credit crisis, an overbought market, poor underlying fundamentals, unchanged or growing unemployment, and very low consumer spending. These are many reasons that the huge bull market is a fake. We're not even half way through the real estate disaster that started the whole mess, right now we're in the eye of the storm.
I would reccommend holding your shares long but the supply is so great and there have been so many new discoveries that I think the prices will be held down until a greater use for gas surfaces. It would be a great alternative for fueling our cars. Buy the lows when the markets turn down if anything, Im sure there will be some profits to make from there.